Will the next ENSO event be of modoki type?

Asked by: Veronica Sniadecki

What is ENSO modoki?

The El Niño Modoki involves ocean-atmosphere coupled processes which include a unique tripolar sea level pressure pattern during the evolution, analogous to the Southern Oscillation in the case of El Niño. Hence the total entity is named as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Modoki.

What is the ENSO prediction for the rest of the year?

There is about 70% chance for the continuation of the La Niña during the September-November 2022, 30% chance for ENSO-neutral and the chance of El Niño developing is near-zero.

How far in advance can El Niño be predicted?

Climate scientists have struggled to predict El Niño events more than 1 year in advance, but artificial intelligence (AI) can now extend forecasts to 18 months, according to a new study.

When was the last El Niño?

Since 2000, El Niño events have been observed in

Is 2022 El Nino year?

WMO predicts first “triple-dip” La Niña of the century



The WMO El Niño/La Niña Update predicts the continuation of the current La Niña over the next six months, with a 70% chance in September-November 2022 but gradually decreasing to 55% in December-February 2022/2023. It started in September 2020.

Is El Nino good for India?

El Nino refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central Equatorial Pacific. It is associated with high pressure in the western Pacific. El Nino adversely impacts the Indian monsoons and hence, agriculture in India.

Will there be an El Niño in 2022 23?

Big changes in circulation patterns worldwide already in 2022! After seasonal forecasts, we are coming with the latest ENSO update – and there are very similar forecast patterns, such as during the last update in Summer 2021 /https://mkweather.com/2022-2023-forecast-chances-for-el-nino//.

Will 2024 be an El Niño year?

El Nino Is Coming in 2023 and then the Gleissberg 100-Year Drought Cycle for Midwest in 2024-2025. Are You Ready? We were blessed to have had the opportunity to share our views on Ag markets with 2 separate interviews with the esteemed Realvision group.

Will 2022 be a hot summer?

The summer of 2022 is shaping up to be a scorcher. June 2022 saw the warmest temperatures on record over the world’s land areas – and record–breaking heatwaves have swept across the northern hemisphere, particularly continental Europe, the UK, China and parts of the US.

How often do El Niño events occur?

every two to seven years

El Niño and La Niña events occur every two to seven years, on average, but they don’t occur on a regular schedule. Generally, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña.

Can we stop El Niño?

There is nothing we can do to stop El Niño and La Niña events from occurring. The year-to-year oscillations between normal, warm, and cold conditions in the tropical Pacific associated with the ENSO cycle involve massive redistributions of upper ocean heat.

What triggers an El Niño event?

El Niño occurs when warm water builds up along the equator in the eastern Pacific. The warm ocean surface warms the atmosphere, which allows moisture-rich air to rise and develop into rainstorms. The clearest example of El Niño in this series of images is 1997.

Is La Niña over 2022?

La Niña under way in the tropical Pacific



The ENSO Outlook dial has been raised to LA NIÑA. This follows recent cooling in the central tropical Pacific and model outlooks indicating that cooler than average ocean temperatures will be sustained until at least the end of 2022.

Will El Niño return in 2023?

A La Niña pattern has persisted into the summer of 2022, and long-range models have been projecting a higher than average chance of a La Niña continuing into the winter of 2022-2023, before possibly weakening in the spring of 2023.

Is El Niño or La Niña better?

In general, El Niño conditions lead to wetter, snowier conditions in Amarillo and cooler maximum temperatures during the winter. La Niña conditions lead to drier and warmer temperatures overall, with notable extreme cold spells.

What are the impacts of El Niño?

Severe drought and associated food insecurity, flooding, rains, and temperature rises due to El Niño are causing a wide range of health problems, including disease outbreaks, malnutrition, heat stress and respiratory diseases.

What is CP El Niño?

The Central Pacific El Niño (CP El Niño) has been frequently observed in recent decades. The phenomenon is characterized by an anomalous warm sea surface temperature (SST) confined to the central Pacific and has different teleconnections from the traditional El Niño with major societal impact.

How long has La Nina been around?

La Niña events have occurred for hundreds of years, and occurred on a regular basis during the early parts of both the 17th and 19th centuries. Since the start of the 20th century, La Niña events have occurred during the following years: 1903–04.

Will there be an El Niño in 2022 23?

Big changes in circulation patterns worldwide already in 2022! After seasonal forecasts, we are coming with the latest ENSO update – and there are very similar forecast patterns, such as during the last update in Summer 2021 /https://mkweather.com/2022-2023-forecast-chances-for-el-nino//.

Will there be La Niña 2023?

La Niña under way in the tropical Pacific



The majority of models predict an easing of the La Niña in early 2023, suggesting a relatively short-lived event; ENSO events typically peak during the southern hemisphere summer and decay during the autumn.