Is a comet coming to Earth?

Will a Comet Ever Crash Into Earth? Let’s Talk Space Rocks

Okay, let’s get real for a minute. Space is huge, right? And it’s full of stuff whizzing around – planets, moons, and, yeah, comets. Those icy wanderers with their dazzling tails always get our attention. But does that mean we should be building bunkers and stocking up on canned goods? Is a comet actually headed our way? Let’s break it down, shall we?

The Lowdown on Comet Collisions

Here’s the thing: comets can be a hazard. Some of them travel paths that cross Earth’s orbit, which, in theory, opens the door for a cosmic collision. We’re talking about maybe ten long-period comets a year, each one bigger than half a mile across, swinging into our neighborhood. Now, before you panic, remember that whole “space is huge” thing? Earth is a tiny target in all that vastness. So, the odds of any one comet actually hitting us? Super, super low. We’re talking a fraction of a fraction of a percent.

Think of it like this: imagine throwing darts at a tiny bullseye from across a football field. You might hit it eventually, but it’s not exactly a sure thing. And that’s kind of how comet impacts work. Sure, they’re possible, and they’ve definitely happened in the past (more on that in a bit), but the chances of a major one happening in your lifetime? Pretty slim. Like, winning-the-lottery slim. But, you know, never say never.

When Space Rocks Get Too Close

So, what happens if a comet does decide to pay us an unwelcome visit? Well, it depends on the comet’s size. We’re constantly getting bombarded by tiny space dust – those are the shooting stars you see on a clear night. A bit bigger, and you might get a meteorite landing in your backyard (talk about a conversation starter!).

But the real trouble starts with the big boys. The ones that could cause serious damage. We’re talking regional or even global catastrophe. Now, these kinds of impacts are rare, thankfully. But they have happened. Most scientists think a massive asteroid – we’re talking six miles wide – slammed into Earth about 65 million years ago. Boom! End of the dinosaurs. The planet was shrouded in dust, temperatures plummeted, and, well, you know the rest. It was a bad day for pretty much everyone (except maybe the mammals, who got a leg up).

Keeping an Eye on the Sky

The good news is, unlike the dinosaurs, we’re not totally helpless. We have telescopes and clever people who use them to track these Near-Earth Objects (NEOs). They’re basically playing cosmic billiards, figuring out where these space rocks are headed and if they might get a little too close for comfort. NASA even has a system called Sentry that constantly scans for potential impacts over the next century. As of mid-2025, the European Space Agency is keeping tabs on around 1,800 asteroids with a tiny chance of hitting us.

And here’s the official word from NAS “There are currently no known asteroids of significant size on a collision trajectory with Earth.” So, breathe easy. But that doesn’t mean we can just ignore the sky. It’s a constant game of cosmic watch, and we need to keep playing.

Close Calls and Future Encounters

Even though the chances of a major smackdown are low right now, it’s practically a given that one will happen eventually unless we get our act together and figure out how to nudge these things out of the way.

• Apophis: Remember that asteroid Apophis? It’s going to swing by pretty close in 2029, 2035, and 2036. It’s a good reminder of why we need to keep our eyes peeled and be ready to react if something does head our way.
• Bennu: Then there’s Bennu. NASA’s crunched the numbers and reckons there’s a 0.057% chance it could hit us sometime before 2300, with September 2182 being the most likely date. But don’t start writing your doomsday letters just yet! NASA’s pretty confident that Bennu will miss us by a mile, even in 2182.
• 29075 (1950 DA): And let’s not forget 29075 (1950 DA). There’s a tiny, tiny chance – about 1 in 34,500 – that this one could cause some trouble in 2880.

Recent Comets

While we’re talking about comets, let’s look at some recent ones.

• Comet NEOWISE: Remember Comet NEOWISE back in 2020? That was a beauty! The brightest comet we’d seen in the Northern Hemisphere since 1997. It zipped past us at a safe distance of about 64 million miles.
• Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS: And who could forget Comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS), which lit up the sky for a week in October 2024?
• Upcoming Comets: Keep your eyes peeled, because we’ve got a few more comets on the horizon! C/2025 K1 (ATLAS) should be putting on a show around late September/early October 2025, followed by C/2025 A6 (Lemmon) in late October/early November 2025, and 210P/Christensen in late November 2025.

Can We Do Anything About It?

So, what can we do about all this? Well, the best defense is a good offense, right? In this case, that means finding these potential impactors before they find us. NASA and other organizations are constantly scanning the skies, looking for anything that might pose a threat. And they’re working on ways to deflect them – basically, giving them a gentle nudge to change their course. And if all else fails? Well, there’s always the nuclear option. But let’s hope we don’t have to go there!

The Bottom Line

Look, the universe is a crazy, unpredictable place. And the possibility of a comet or asteroid impact is a real one. But it’s not something to lose sleep over. The odds are in our favor, and we’ve got smart people working hard to keep us safe. So, the next time you see a comet streaking across the night sky, enjoy the show. Just remember to keep your eyes on the stars, and your feet on the ground. We’ll be okay. Probably.