How will global warming affect climate systems like the ENSO or the MJO?

Asked by: Craig Wiseman

How will global warming affect ENSO?

Climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme El Niño events, leading to intensifying droughts, worsening floods, and shifting hurricane patterns, according to a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Does MJO affect ENSO?

There is evidence that the MJO influences the ENSO cycle. It does not cause El Niño or La Niña, but can contribute to the speed of development and intensity of El Niño and La Niña episodes.

How are ENSO and MJO related?

The relationship between MJO in summer and ENSO in autumn is probably related to the oceanic downwelling Kelvin waves, which are excited by eastward propagating MJO activity in the equatorial western Pacific.

What will happen to ENSO in the future?

The researchers found that regardless of any emissions mitigation efforts taken in upcoming decades, climate change will lead to an increase in El Niño–associated rainfall patterns by 2040. Climate change’s impact on ENSO-related sea surface temperature was predicted to emerge slightly later, becoming clear by 2070.

How is global warming likely to impact the El Niño and?

It studied the atmospheric heat and its movement to find out that the ENSO system would collapse. In the future, they found, the El Nino events would most likely lose heat to the atmosphere at a quicker rate due to evaporation of water.

Is El Niño caused by global warming?

Is El Niño caused by climate change? No. El Niño events are not caused by climate change – they are a natural reoccurring phenomenon that have been occurring for thousands of years.

What does MJO mean in weather?

Madden-Julian Oscillation

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the major fluctuation in tropical weather on weekly to monthly timescales. The MJO can be characterised as an eastward moving ‘pulse’ of cloud and rainfall near the equator that typically recurs every 30 to 60 days.

How does the MJO work?

The MJO consists of two parts, or phases: one is the enhanced rainfall (or convective) phase and the other is the suppressed rainfall phase. Strong MJO activity often dissects the planet into halves: one half within the enhanced convective phase and the other half in the suppressed convective phase.

Where is the MJO?

The MJO is characterized by an eastward progression of large regions of both enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall, observed mainly over the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean.

What is the Madden Julian Oscillation and El Niño Southern Oscillation?

Unlike a standing pattern like the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Madden–Julian oscillation is a traveling pattern that propagates eastward, at approximately 4 to 8 m/s (14 to 29 km/h; 9 to 18 mph), through the atmosphere above the warm parts of the Indian and Pacific oceans.

Why is Julian Oscillation in Madden?

The Madden-Julian Oscillation is characterised by an eastward spread of large regions of enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall, mainly observed over the Indian and Pacific Ocean.

How is global warming affecting La Niña?

In a warming climate, rainfall extremes are projected to shift eastward along the equator in the Pacific Ocean during El Niño events and westward during extreme La Niña events.

What does ENSO stand for?

El Niño and the Southern Oscillation, also known as ENSO is a periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (El Niño) and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

What are the global effects of El Niño and La Niña?

El Niño and La Niña affect not only ocean temperatures, but also how much it rains on land. Depending on which cycle occurs (and when), this can mean either droughts or flooding. Typically, El Niño and its warm waters are associated with drought, while La Niña is linked to increased flooding.

How does climate change affect La Niña?

“Human induced climate change amplifies the impacts of naturally occurring events like La Niña and is increasingly influencing our weather patterns, in particular through more intense heat and drought and the associated risk of wildfires – as well as record-breaking deluges of rainfall and flooding,” said WMO Secretary

What would happen if ENSO became more frequent?

That’s because ENSO alternates between unfavorably warm El Niño conditions followed by favorable, cooler La Niña phases. Shorter, more frequent El Niños may mean the birds experience shorter periods of poor conditions, with La Niña following to help them bounce back.

What are the global effects of El Niño and La Niña?

El Niño and La Niña affect not only ocean temperatures, but also how much it rains on land. Depending on which cycle occurs (and when), this can mean either droughts or flooding. Typically, El Niño and its warm waters are associated with drought, while La Niña is linked to increased flooding.

What climate condition occurs during El Niño?

An El Niño condition occurs when surface water in the equatorial Pacific becomes warmer than average and east winds blow weaker than normal. The opposite condition is called La Niña. During this phase of ENSO, the water is cooler than normal and the east winds are stronger. El Niños typically occur every 3 to 5 years.

What is the main cause of El Niño?

El Niño occurs when warm water builds up along the equator in the eastern Pacific. The warm ocean surface warms the atmosphere, which allows moisture-rich air to rise and develop into rainstorms. The clearest example of El Niño in this series of images is 1997.

What does ENSO stand for?

El Niño and the Southern Oscillation, also known as ENSO is a periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (El Niño) and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.