The search functionality is under construction.

The search functionality is under construction.

This paper presents an enhancement of a software project simulator to perform risk prediction with cost estimation capability. So far, we have developed a software project simulator to simulate software development projects. In this simulator, a development process was described using Petri net model, and it was applied to some actual project data in a certain company successfully. On the other hand, we have also presented a risk predicting system to find "risky" projects by statistical analysis on risk questionnaire for project managers. In this approach, only the probability to be risky was calculated for a project. Thus, the managers in the company wanted to know a concrete proof why a software project becomes risky. In this paper, to present the proof that a software project becomes risky, we try to enhance the previous project simulator so that the simulator can deal with risk factors. To consider the risk factors, we modify the previous simulator so that both the fluctuation of skill level and the deadline pressure can be represented by the parameters in the simulator. By using a case study, we confirm that the enhanced simulator can estimate the development cost under some typical risks. As a result, we can expect that the simulator shows how much the development cost of a risky project exceeds an estimate.

- Publication
- IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Fundamentals Vol.E84-A No.11 pp.2812-2821

- Publication Date
- 2001/11/01

- Publicized

- Online ISSN

- DOI

- Type of Manuscript
- Special Section INVITED PAPER (Special Section on Concurrent Systems Technology)

- Category

The copyright of the original papers published on this site belongs to IEICE. Unauthorized use of the original or translated papers is prohibited. See IEICE Provisions on Copyright for details.

Copy

Osamu MIZUNO, Daisuke SHIMODA, Tohru KIKUNO, Yasunari TAKAGI, "Enhancing Software Project Simulator toward Risk Prediction with Cost Estimation Capability" in IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Fundamentals,
vol. E84-A, no. 11, pp. 2812-2821, November 2001, doi: .

Abstract: This paper presents an enhancement of a software project simulator to perform risk prediction with cost estimation capability. So far, we have developed a software project simulator to simulate software development projects. In this simulator, a development process was described using Petri net model, and it was applied to some actual project data in a certain company successfully. On the other hand, we have also presented a risk predicting system to find "risky" projects by statistical analysis on risk questionnaire for project managers. In this approach, only the probability to be risky was calculated for a project. Thus, the managers in the company wanted to know a concrete proof why a software project becomes risky. In this paper, to present the proof that a software project becomes risky, we try to enhance the previous project simulator so that the simulator can deal with risk factors. To consider the risk factors, we modify the previous simulator so that both the fluctuation of skill level and the deadline pressure can be represented by the parameters in the simulator. By using a case study, we confirm that the enhanced simulator can estimate the development cost under some typical risks. As a result, we can expect that the simulator shows how much the development cost of a risky project exceeds an estimate.

URL: https://global.ieice.org/en_transactions/fundamentals/10.1587/e84-a_11_2812/_p

Copy

@ARTICLE{e84-a_11_2812,

author={Osamu MIZUNO, Daisuke SHIMODA, Tohru KIKUNO, Yasunari TAKAGI, },

journal={IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Fundamentals},

title={Enhancing Software Project Simulator toward Risk Prediction with Cost Estimation Capability},

year={2001},

volume={E84-A},

number={11},

pages={2812-2821},

abstract={This paper presents an enhancement of a software project simulator to perform risk prediction with cost estimation capability. So far, we have developed a software project simulator to simulate software development projects. In this simulator, a development process was described using Petri net model, and it was applied to some actual project data in a certain company successfully. On the other hand, we have also presented a risk predicting system to find "risky" projects by statistical analysis on risk questionnaire for project managers. In this approach, only the probability to be risky was calculated for a project. Thus, the managers in the company wanted to know a concrete proof why a software project becomes risky. In this paper, to present the proof that a software project becomes risky, we try to enhance the previous project simulator so that the simulator can deal with risk factors. To consider the risk factors, we modify the previous simulator so that both the fluctuation of skill level and the deadline pressure can be represented by the parameters in the simulator. By using a case study, we confirm that the enhanced simulator can estimate the development cost under some typical risks. As a result, we can expect that the simulator shows how much the development cost of a risky project exceeds an estimate.},

keywords={},

doi={},

ISSN={},

month={November},}

Copy

TY - JOUR

TI - Enhancing Software Project Simulator toward Risk Prediction with Cost Estimation Capability

T2 - IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Fundamentals

SP - 2812

EP - 2821

AU - Osamu MIZUNO

AU - Daisuke SHIMODA

AU - Tohru KIKUNO

AU - Yasunari TAKAGI

PY - 2001

DO -

JO - IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Fundamentals

SN -

VL - E84-A

IS - 11

JA - IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Fundamentals

Y1 - November 2001

AB - This paper presents an enhancement of a software project simulator to perform risk prediction with cost estimation capability. So far, we have developed a software project simulator to simulate software development projects. In this simulator, a development process was described using Petri net model, and it was applied to some actual project data in a certain company successfully. On the other hand, we have also presented a risk predicting system to find "risky" projects by statistical analysis on risk questionnaire for project managers. In this approach, only the probability to be risky was calculated for a project. Thus, the managers in the company wanted to know a concrete proof why a software project becomes risky. In this paper, to present the proof that a software project becomes risky, we try to enhance the previous project simulator so that the simulator can deal with risk factors. To consider the risk factors, we modify the previous simulator so that both the fluctuation of skill level and the deadline pressure can be represented by the parameters in the simulator. By using a case study, we confirm that the enhanced simulator can estimate the development cost under some typical risks. As a result, we can expect that the simulator shows how much the development cost of a risky project exceeds an estimate.

ER -