Dream islands before the sinking

Rising sea levels could soon be the Maldives’ undoing. If climate change is not stopped, most of the islands will be under water by 2100. President Mohamed Nasheed wants to draw attention to this threat. That is why he went diving with his cabinet.

It was a spectacular action: Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed jumped into the turquoise sea in a diving suit, followed by his eleven ministers. At the bottom of the sea, the cabinet held a climate conference. The message to the rest of the world: Save the Maldives from destruction!

The Maldives are known primarily as a holiday paradise. But the islands in the Indian Ocean are severely threatened by climate change: their highest point is only two and a half metres above sea level. And if the water continues to rise due to global warming, it will soon mean “land under” for the dream islands. According to climate researchers, a rise of just 20 to 60 centimetres would be enough to make the Maldives largely uninhabitable. In addition, storms and storm surges are becoming more frequent due to climate change – the situation for the island state is getting worse and worse.

The coral reefs around the islands form a protective barrier against storm surges. But these are also suffering from climate change and are already severely damaged in some cases.

Corals in danger

A colourful underwater world is what makes the Maldives so appealing. Coral reefs, which are home to many marine animals and plants, surround the islands. The reefs are a natural protective barrier against the tides. With a gently rising sea level, the reefs could even grow with it – provided they are healthy. But this is where the problem begins: the reefs themselves are threatened by climate change and are already severely damaged. The culprit is so-called coral bleaching. The coral stalks first bleach and eventually die. This disease is caused by the warming of the sea. Because coral bleaching does not only occur around the Maldives, but already in many places, it is considered a worldwide threat to the reefs.

Global warming

The earth is getting warmer and warmer. In the last hundred years alone, the average temperature has risen by almost one degree Celsius. The main reason for this warming is the increased amount of carbon dioxide in the air. This increase in CO2 is mainly caused by the industrialised countries through the burning of oil, gas and coal.

Plants, on the other hand, have a protective effect on the climate. They can absorb carbon dioxide from the air and convert it into organic compounds during photosynthesis. Tropical forests store a particularly large amount of carbon dioxide. However, because large areas of forest are being cleared in the tropics, this storage function is becoming smaller and smaller. Because where there are no more trees, no more carbon dioxide is extracted from the air. The greenhouse effect increases, the atmosphere warms up.

So will we soon be swimming in the bathing lake instead of sledging in winter? Difficult to predict. Scientists are trying to calculate how many degrees Celsius the earth will heat up in the future with the help of computer models. According to these models, the average temperature on Earth could rise by another one to six degrees by the year 2100. How the temperature curve will actually develop depends above all on whether the proportion of carbon dioxide continues to rise.

Serious consequences of climate change can already be seen: Ice masses are melting, sea levels are rising, storms and droughts are increasing. This makes it all the more important to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially CO2. Because this trace gas remains in the atmosphere for a long time. Only if we blow less of it into the atmosphere can man-made climate change at least be slowed down.

Some industrialised countries have therefore committed themselves to reducing their greenhouse gas emissions and not to exceed certain CO2 levels. But despite a whole series of climate summits, the global community has not yet succeeded in slowing down the rise of carbon dioxide in the air.

The consequences of climate change

Climate change is already particularly visible in the polar regions. Just a few decades ago, the Arctic Ocean was largely covered by ice. But due to rising temperatures, this ice cover is melting: in the last 30 years, its area has almost halved. At the same time, the ice cover is becoming thinner and thinner. Climate researchers have calculated that the ice could melt completely in the next 20 years. Sea levels would rise by several metres as a result. But not only the ice sheets at the poles are melting. The glaciers in the high mountains are also losing mass.

Because the sea level is rising due to the melting of the ice, ever larger coastal areas are being flooded. Low-lying island states, such as the Maldives in the Indian Ocean or Tuvalu in the Pacific, are therefore increasingly threatened by storm surges. And not only the sea level, but also the water temperature is rising with climate change. As a result, more water evaporates and more water vapour is stored in the air. This increases the greenhouse effect, which heats up the atmosphere even more. In addition, this increases the risk of storms such as heavy rain and hurricanes.

In dry regions, deserts are spreading due to rising temperatures. More and more droughts are causing rivers to dry up and previously green areas to wither. In the south of Spain, for example, the usual rainfall that is urgently needed for agriculture has been absent for years. And the water shortage in southern Europe continues to worsen.

All these consequences of climate change can already be observed now. Climate researchers are trying to calculate how it will continue with the help of computer models. But the future is difficult to predict because so many influences determine our climate. For example, the melting of glaciers dilutes the salty sea water with fresh water. The salinity of the sea, however, drives ocean currents. So what could happen if the lower salinity causes the warm Gulf Stream to break off? Will it then initially become colder instead of warmer in Europe? What would happen if the permafrost thaws in the far north? Will tonnes of the greenhouse gas methane then escape from the ground? And will this accelerate climate change?

So far, no one can answer that exactly. But with all the unanswered questions, one thing seems certain: If we do not drastically reduce our carbon dioxide emissions, temperatures on this globe will continue to rise.

Who will be most affected by climate change?

We already have less snow in winter than we did a few decades ago. Instead, plant growth starts earlier in the year and we can now go swimming well into autumn. But the absence of the white splendour and the longer bathing season are among the more harmless consequences of the rise in temperature.

No country on earth will be spared from climate change. If sea levels rise, large swathes of land will be flooded on all coasts of the earth. For rich countries like Germany or the Netherlands, this is expensive, but not an insoluble problem. Here, dams are being built against the floods that can withstand even a strong rise in water levels.

The situation is different in poor countries: Large parts of Bangladesh, for example, are only a few metres above sea level – and the poor country cannot afford expensive coastal protection. If the sea level rises by one metre, many millions of people lose their homes and have to relocate. The Maldives and the South Sea islands of Tuvalu may be even worse affected: These islands rise only a few metres above sea level and could be completely flooded – in which case an entire country would have to relocate.

Regions that depend on the freshwater reservoirs of glaciers are also particularly affected by climate change: If these glaciers melt, there is initially a threat of flooding, followed by severe drought in the long term. Areas in the Himalayas and the Andes are particularly at risk. In the future, more than 200 million people there could be left high and dry, with hardly any drinking water and unable to irrigate their fields.

Increasing water shortages are also threatening the arid regions that continue to spread across the globe. In 2011, for example, East Africa experienced a drought from which hundreds of thousands of people had to flee. Thousands died in the disaster. Many countries lack the money to protect themselves from climate change and its consequences. And it is often the countries that produce only a few greenhouse gases that feel the effects of climate change particularly strongly.

Climate disaster at the North Pole

The polar bear’s floe is melting away under its paws. Global warming is causing the sea ice around the North Pole to disappear, and faster and faster. The greenhouse effect, caused by the emission of carbon dioxide and other climate-damaging gases, is to blame.

In 1980, the Arctic Ocean was still frozen over on 7.8 million square kilometres, an area about the size of Australia. Within 30 years, the ice area has shrunk to about half that size! The ice sheets are already thawing in spring. If things continue like this, the “eternal ice” will soon have disappeared completely.

This is a catastrophe for the polar bear. Environmental organisations fear that polar bears and seals will become extinct within the next 20 years. Migratory birds are also losing their breeding grounds in the Arctic due to the changed climate.

Another marine predator, on the other hand, is already finding new habitat: because the ice continues to recede, the killer whale can now also go in search of food high up in the north.

Shortcut through the Arctic Ocean

The ice in the Arctic Ocean is melting dramatically. This has opened up a trade route between Europe and Asia: the Northeast Passage. This sea route runs along the northern coast of the continents of Europe and Asia. In the past, large transport ships could only sail through this route in high summer. This was because the Northeast Passage was frozen almost all year round and far too dangerous because of the masses of ice. Ships travelling between Rotterdam and Tokyo therefore took the long route through the Mediterranean, the Suez Canal and around India.

New satellite images show that the route through the Arctic Ocean is becoming more and more ice-free. This makes the journey easier for ships – even without icebreakers. This saves time and transport costs, because the route through the Arctic Ocean is several thousand kilometres shorter than the old route through the Suez Canal.