Assessing Climate Models: Identifying the Extremes of Warming under RCP8.5 in CMIP5

Getting Started

The Community Earth System Model (CESM) is a widely used climate model that is part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). CMIP5 provides a comprehensive collection of climate models that have been used to project future climate scenarios under different emission scenarios, including the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). RCP8.5 is a high emissions scenario that assumes no action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In this article, we examine the CMIP5 models that produce the highest and lowest warming projections for RCP8.5, shedding light on the range of possible future climate outcomes.

Models with highest warming projections

Among the CMIP5 models, several stand out as producing the highest warming projections under the RCP8.5 scenario. These models consistently simulate a future climate characterized by substantial increases in global mean surface temperature. One such model is HadGEM2-ES (Met Office Hadley Center), which projects a particularly high level of warming. HadGEM2-ES includes detailed representations of the physical processes that govern the Earth’s climate system, including interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and sea ice.

Another notable model with high warming projections is MIROC5 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate), developed by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. MIROC5 has been used extensively in climate research and is known for capturing the complex interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, and land surface. Its simulations under RCP8.5 indicate a future climate characterized by significant warming.
It is important to note that while these models project high levels of warming, they are not predictions of the future, but rather represent possible outcomes under the given emissions scenario. The actual trajectory of future climate change will depend on a number of factors, including future greenhouse gas emissions, climate feedbacks, and uncertainties in the models themselves.

Models with lowest warming projections

In contrast to the models with the highest warming projections, there are also CMIP5 models that provide relatively lower estimates of future warming under the RCP8.5 scenario. These models suggest a more moderate increase in global mean surface temperature compared to the high warming models. One such model is the NASA-developed GISS-E2-R (Goddard Institute for Space Studies). GISS-E2-R incorporates a range of physical processes and interactions, including atmospheric chemistry and aerosols, to simulate future climate conditions. Its projections for RCP8.5 show less warming than some other models.

Another model with relatively lower warming projections is IPSL-CM5A-LR (Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace), developed by French research institutes. IPSL-CM5A-LR is a comprehensive Earth system model that includes interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, land surface and vegetation. Its simulations under RCP8.5 suggest a more moderate increase in global mean surface temperature.
While these models project lower levels of warming, it is important to interpret their results with caution. Uncertainties in climate projections exist due to a number of factors, including the complexity of the Earth system, limitations of modeling techniques, and challenges in accurately representing certain physical processes.

Conclusion

The CMIP5 models provide valuable insights into possible future climate scenarios under the RCP8.5 emissions pathway. While some models project higher levels of warming, others suggest more moderate increases in global mean surface temperature. It is important to consider the range of projections offered by different models in order to understand the uncertainties and potential outcomes associated with future climate change.

It is worth noting that the CMIP5 models are not exhaustive, and subsequent versions of climate models, such as CMIP6, have been developed that incorporate advances in our understanding of the climate system and improved modeling techniques. These newer models continue to refine our understanding of future climate change and provide valuable information for policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders in assessing the potential risks and impacts associated with different emissions scenarios.
As our understanding of the climate system evolves and more advanced models become available, it is essential that we continue to refine our projections and improve our ability to predict the complex nature of future climate change.

FAQs

Which CMIP5 models give the highest and lowest warming for RCP8.5?

The CMIP5 models that give the highest and lowest warming for RCP8.5 are as follows:

1. Which CMIP5 model gives the highest warming for RCP8.5?

The CMIP5 model that gives the highest warming for RCP8.5 is the model called “GFDL-CM3” (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model 3).

2. Which CMIP5 model gives the lowest warming for RCP8.5?

The CMIP5 model that gives the lowest warming for RCP8.5 is the model called “HadGEM2-ES” (Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model 2 – Earth System).

3. What are some other CMIP5 models with high warming for RCP8.5?

Some other CMIP5 models with high warming for RCP8.5 include “MIROC5” (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate 5), “MRI-CGCM3” (Meteorological Research Institute Coupled Global Climate Model 3), and “IPSL-CM5A-LR” (Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model 5A – Low Resolution).

4. Are there any CMIP5 models with low warming for RCP8.5?

While the majority of CMIP5 models project high warming for RCP8.5, there are a few models that show relatively lower warming. Some of these models include “CCSM4” (Community Climate System Model 4), “CESM1-CAM5” (Community Earth System Model 1 – Community Atmosphere Model 5), and “GISS-E2-R” (Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2 – R).

5. How can I access the CMIP5 model data?

To access the CMIP5 model data, you can visit the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) website at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip5/ where you can find the data from various CMIP5 models. Additionally, you can explore the World Climate Research Programme’s CMIP5 data portal at https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/mips/cmip5/ for more information and access to the data.